Confidence Bounds Examples for Repairable Systems

Fielded Systems Example 3

Using the data from Example 1, calculate the mission reliability at t = 2000 hr and mission time d = 40 hr along with the confidence bounds at the 90% confidence level.

Solution to Fielded Systems Example 3

The ML estimates of and from Example 1 are:

The mission reliability at t = 2000 for mission time d = 40 is:

At the 90% confidence level and T = 2000 hr, the Fisher Matrix confidence bounds for the mission reliability for mission time d = 40 are given by:

The Crow confidence bounds for the mission reliability are:

Figures 10.3 and 10.4 show the Fisher Matrix and Crow confidence bounds on mission reliability for mission time d = 40.

Figure 10.3: Conditional Reliability vs. Time plot with Fisher Matrix confidence bounds

Figure 10.4: Conditional Reliability vs. Time plot with Crow confidence bounds